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Fuel Cell Folly
Introduction
In the late 1990s articles
about electric cars began to appear with more frequency in the media – heralded
as a major societal transition from polluting internal combustion engines to
"clean, emission free vehicles." In 1997 small numbers of these "electric
vehicles" (EVs) were shipped to test customers. Owner groups were formed, web
sites were developed and a new exciting world of fundamental change in
transportation began to be extolled in magazines and newspapers.Ý
GM shipped the EV1 in 1997.
Ford bought the rights to the "Th!nk" electric car, developed by a company in
Norway, and began shipping versions of that vehicle. Ford also developed a
truck, the Ford Ranger EV. Honda shipped the EV Plus and Toyota the RAV4 EV.
From 1997 through 2000, the EV was proposed as the solution to foreign oil
dependence and environmental problems. In that four year period, GM doubled the
mileage range of the EV1 with a new battery system.
By 2002, it was all over.
Ford stopped selling Th!nk and sold the rights to a Swiss company. GM withdrew
the EV1 and began recalling the cars, all of which had been leased to
customers. Honda and Toyota stopped marketing their cars, and their Web sites
disappeared. The life cycle of the Electric Vehicle, marketed as a wonder, was
less than a decade. Its growth and demise overlapped the dotcom phenomena and
the disappointments were similar.Ý More than 100,000 vehicles were to be zero emissions by this point in time. The actual numbers – approximately 3000.
The media has now turned to
fuel cell vehicles and what is termed "The Hydrogen Economy". This seems to be
the latest "new" economy, the Internet Economy having faded almost completely
and the Information Economy having gone down in disrepute. The fuel cell and
"Hydrogen Economy" will presumably free us from many things, foremost our
current dependency on oil imports from other countries, particularly the Middle
East ñ the same claims made for the EV.
It is the assertion of this article that the fuel cell vehicle (FCV) mania will last no longer than that of the electric vehicle (EV), about five years.
The first two fuel cell commercial vehicles made by Honda and Toyota, the Honda FCX and Toyotra FCHV, were shipped in late 2002, corresponding to the 1997 shipment of GM's EV1. Five years later, the EV1 was withdrawn. It is projected that in 2007, five years after the 2002 shipments, the fuel cell vehicles will be in a similar position.
This does not mean that the fuel cell will not be developed – only that it will no longer be offered as the panacea for our energy problems. Like the EV, it may be useful in some niche applications.
Next: Selling the Fuel Cell
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